Paul Flynn

Wouldn’t happen to a Top Tory

 

Only the second Labour Leadership Candidate to visit Newport was in the city today.

Although my loyalties are elsewhere, I went along to the Ringland Club as a courtesy to give Andy Burnham a word of welcome. Although this well-run plush club is in Newport East, I had a hand in setting it up as a founder member nearly 30 years ago. It’s a fine example of practical socialism in action.

 
 

Andy was engaging. He was bursting with pride that the launch of his manifesto ‘Aspirational Socialism’ yesterday because the second biggest topic on Twitter. One vivid anecdote struck home with me. In answer to a question about residential care he talked with obvious emotion above his dreadful experience with a loved one at the mercy of a ‘caring’ service.  ‘Her things were being stolen’ he said. ‘The last straw was a day when I noticed that her fingers were bruised. Someone had hurt her by pulling her engagement ring off her finger.’

It’s an experience none of us would ever forget. It’s also a dividing line. I’m sure no Top Tory would ever have a loved one in a home when the staff routinely robbed the patients.

 

 

Treasure Trove

It was do-nuts all round yesterday to boost the moral the volunteer workers at the Roman Remains dig at Caerleon. It’s exhausting work and a bit demoralising in the rain.

 
 

The remains uncovered are promising. There is evidence that the roman urban area was much bigger than previously thought. It was fascinating examining the wealth of small finds of jewellery, coins and parts of military equipment.

 
 

Two volunteers showed me an illustration of what the site may have look like in the second century. Roman Caerleon is one of the top visitors site in Wales. This dig will reveal new treasures.

Happy election ending

A story of happiness

Paul Flynn, Labour	16,389	41.3%
Matthew Williams, Conservative	12,845	32.3%
Veronica German, Liberal Democrat	6,587	16.6%
Timothy Windsor, British National Party	1,183	3.0%
Hugh Moelwyn Hughes, UK Independence Party	1,144	2.9%
Jeff Rees, Plaid Cymru	1,122	2.8%
Pippa Bartolotti, Green Party	450	1.1%
Candidate	Votes	Share %

Labour majority:

3,544

Turnout:

64.0%

The 2005 general election

Paul Flynn, Labour	16,021	44.8%
William Morgan, Conservative	10,563	29.6%
Nigel Flanagan, Liberal Democrat	6,398	17.9%
Tony Salkeld, Plaid Cymru	1,278	3.6%
Hugh Moelwyn Hughes, UK Independence Party	848	2.4%
Peter Varley, Green Party	540	1.5%
Saeid Arjomand, Independent	84	0.2%
Candidate	Votes	Share %

Labour majority:

5,458

Turnout:

59.3%

The 2001 general election

Paul Flynn, Labour	18,489	52.7%
William Morgan, Conservative	9,185	26.2%
Veronica Watkins, Liberal Democrat	4,095	11.7%
Anthony Salkeld, Plaid Cymru	2,510	7.2%
Hugh Moelwyn-Hughes, UK Independence Party	506	1.4%
Terry Cavill, British National Party	278	0.8%
Candidate	Votes	Share %

Labour majority:

9,304

Turnout:

58.7%

The 1997 general election

Paul Flynn, Labour	24,331	60.5%
Peter Clarke, Conservative	9,794	24.4%
Stanley Wilson, Liberal Democrat	3,907	9.7%
C Thompsett, The Referendum Party	1,199	3.0%
H Jackson, Plaid Cymru	648	1.6%
H Moelwyn Hughes, UK Independent	323	0.8%
Candidate	Votes	Share %

Labour majority:

14,537

Turnout:

74.6%

The 1992 general election

Paul Flynn, Labour	24,139	53.1%
Andrew Taylor, Conservative	16,360	36.0%
A Toye, Liberal Democrat	4,296	9.5%
Peter Keelan, Plaid Cymru	653	1.4%
Candidate	Votes	Share %

Labour majority:

7,779

Turnout:

82.8%

Winning party in previous elections

1987

Labour

Sackcloth and Ashes

I got yesterday's exit poll completely wrong. So did Iain Dale.

Like the rest of the nation, I was misled by the polls that said that the LibDems support on May 6th was between 27% and 28%. The result was 23%. Iain said that if he was proved wrong he would run naked down Whitehall.

We are waiting Iain.

Exit poll wrong?

Cannot believe the exit poll, even though I would love a Newport West result based on it.

The exit poll cannot take account of the postal votes. They measure what voters tell them when exciting the polling station. The postal votes were mostly sent in when the polls favoured the LidDems and the Tories were in the doldrums. It is inconceivable that the LibDems should have lost ground. If they have it will be an outrage.

Sued!

'Sued!'

It struck panic in the hearts of our already over excited team of workers in my campaign HQ.

A key worker of usual good sense appeared in the  doorway and shouted "Sued!" We all stared. ''Sued! It's a bloody disaster." The blood ran cold as we all suffered our individual nightmare. I was sued during the 2005 election. The scourges who were out to silence me issued their accusation to my local paper a week before the election. Their claim that they were suing me for £300,000 made a front page lead headline. Damage was done and my majority slumped deeper than the Welsh average. They were trying to unseat me as well.

Was history repeating itself? Had we now slipped up on one of leaflets? Was a new nightmare about to be dumped on us? Our fears disappeared on further explanation. 'A Labour buffoon candidate named Sood has just slagged off Gordon Brown.' 

'Oh Sood ?" we chorused, relieved. That's all right. We continue to work with sweet smiles on our faces.

Eve of the poll.

It's been an exiting day with a great deal of canvassing and preparing a drop of a last minute leaflet. A review of Newport West in the Western Mail this morning was comforting. Their poll said that Labour will win and their comment mentioned only only one candidate. They stressed that I was worthy of the title 'independently minded' which they said would be an advantage tomorrow.

In Westgate square in the heart of Newport, I had a heart-warming reception from friends old and new. On 91 year lady told me people ask her why she had eleven children.' tell them it's because we could not afford  a television.'

Tomorrow will be truly exciting. I feel optimistic, detached and calm. After so many election can anything new happen? Well one surprise was the failure of the Tories in advertise in the  of the poll newspapers and the slump in their activity in Newport. Hopeless in the east. Lame in the West. Looking forward to the count.

Confused?

"Last night I posted the following comment. Today the Argus printed the advert in question. As Victor Meldrew says, I just don't believe it!'.

At 17.44 this evening the local paper informed us that they are not running my eve of the poll advert.

The space was booked three weeks ago, The copy was sent in a week ago in order that we could see the proof before publication. We had the proof this morning and made one minor addition. It was not controversial and made no comments about other candidates. In all past five General Election I have advertised on the eve of the poll. This is not te only problem. Readers letters supporting Labour have been rejected while ones  attacking us have been printed. This advert was to be paid at a reduced rate because the paper fouled-up the previous one. The excuse for a gross error was the work on the advert was done in India,

Why have they spiked an advert that was fully agreed well in advance and followed past experience?

 My agent wrote:-

Hi Matt, 
 
I am extremely surprised to hear that as the advert has been booked for a long time and there has been no mention of the policy up until your email tonight. It was surprising that you were not able to get hold of anyone after the second copy of the proof with changes was sent to me this afternoon and can only presume that you called after 5.20pm when I left the office. Of course, I will check with Paul who was still in the office at the time of your email to see if you have already spoken to him.  Since the paper is printed in the evening  I think that 17.44 is a little late to send an email informing me of the problem, particularly when I had both emailed and spoken to Sam earlier in the day. As I have been in the office I cannot understand why no one at the South Wales Argus was able to contact me or Paul by telephone or email.
 
Regardless of the policy I am extremely disappointed in the manner in which this account has been handled in recent weeks. Since SWA have clearly made a decision on this matter, and as I do not believe that the time of your email would have meant that there was much point in discussing it, I will ask Paul to contact you directly if he wishes to discuss the matter further.

MR Don't Know

The Tory candidate in Newport West refused to debate with me and other candidates at the Newport University Campus.  Now we know why.

He insisted on speaking alone. From his lack of answers it is clear that he backs only dog-whistle causes. He would not say which way he will vote on whether to put the cruelty back into foxhunting. He talked about 'loss of jobs'. It's a safe bet that he will vote for killing for fun.

He was weak on global warming. Almost certainly he is a denier.  He ludicrously stated that he would instruct Newport Councillors on the best policies to adopt. He has a lot to learn. 

He says he has not answered any of the requests for pledges of support e-mailed from various causes. I have answered them all, some of them with negative answers. But I have always been up-front and truthful. 

There is nothing in his CV to explain why Newport West Tories picked him as a candidate. He says he is an 'adviser' to a Tory MP but never says that it's the ludicrous David Tredinnick. David is the only surviving MP who was expelled from Parliament for taking a bribe. His own Tory colleagues squirmed in embarrassment when Tredinnick urged the use of alternative medicines to stop foot-and-mouth. Recently he campaigned for more space for MPs in a Commons restaurant by taking the space of other Commons workers. One of the great issues of our time.

No wonder the Newport hopeful does not say which MP he advises.

Brown wins 4th debate

Total of British Soldiers killed in Afghanistan = 284

Will three recent deaths provoke any interest in the election debate. There has been a lull in deaths while the Afghans have been concentrating on the drugs crops. If the deaths do not arouse the interest of three candidates, perhaps the annual cost of £3.5billion might. To distract attention from central error of our continuing presence there, there is some sniping about lack of equipment. That's a cheap superficial accusation that gives an excuse to avoid thinking.

Eloquent Brown

Even more prostituted than ever, most newspapers ignored Gordon Brown's triumph at the Methodist Hall in London. The Times trivialised the event by highlighting a three second heckle. Fair commentators dubbed it the fourth debate. Brown was greeted with wild acclamation. Clegg managed a crouching ovation.

At least the Guardian recognised the strength of Brown speech and his empathy with his audience. They report:

Brown told the audience: "Your movement is like every other great movement in history. It is built on moral convictions. First hundreds, then thousands, then hundreds of thousands of people who say inequality should not be woven into the fabric of our lives, people of compassion and goodwill should never journey without hope, and no injustice should endure forever."

Hi-level canvassing

Total of British Soldiers killed in Afghanistan = 282

If the New York bomb is the work of the Pakistani Taliban it undermines a fundamental justification for the Afghan slaughter. All main parties have parroted the canard that our presence in Afghanistan  eliminates the threat of terrorism here. Not in New York it did not.       

 

Adonis speaks

It’s May the 2^nd in balmy Newport but it felt like mid-winter on the northern side of the Matterhorn this morning. The wind chill left two ardent campaigners shivering but determined.

We had a visit from the splendid Lord Adonis. After a brisk inspection of the£24 million developments at Newport Station, I gave him a major life experience with a trip to the Transporter Bridge. 

He helpfully told a couple of camera crews, 'A Tory Government would be a serious threat to Newport jobs, Newport's economy has been strengthened by the influx of thousands of new public sector jobs of shared services, the Office for National Statistics and Intellectual Property. David Cameron has threatened severe cuts that would endanger Newport's prosperity.'

 

Andrew Adonis was delighted to view the progress on Newport Railway station's bridge and to hear that Transporter bridge would be re-opening next month. There were shouts of Labour support from workman who were welding 220 feet high on the bridge. I yelled back and we have a rudimentary conversation. This is the most high level canvassing I have ever done.

90 years Labour

 

A special treat this afternoon was calling in on the 90th birthday party of Mrs Elliott of Pillmawr Circle Malpas Newport.

'If everyone had lived as long as I have, none of them would be voting Tory,' she said with great passion. She has lived in the same house for 55 years. In spite of her years she is active and does two newspaper crosswords every day. She is very lively and entertaining.

One story she told was entirely new to me. When a bomb dropped in Stow Park Circle in the last war it killed two members of a Jewish pacifist family. The pilot could not reach his target, his plane was in trouble and he dropped his bombs on Newport. He parachuted out and landed in a tree in Cardiff Road. Surviving members of the Jewish family visited him in hospital. They did not blame the pilot for the deaths of their loved ones. They blamed the 'warmongers'.

 

Mrs Elliott's cake carried a picture on her in the ATS uniform that she had made for herself. She served all over the country in wartime work. No replacement uniforms were available when one wore out. Today Mrs Elliott was surrounded by her adoring family. 

In a decade we can look forward to celebrating another significant birthday.

Getting better

Mail Dilemma

Pity the Daily Mail. How do they stuff Labour without  wreaking Cameron? This morning they salivated on the prospect of a dreadful Labour result. This was a based on a very dodgy poll that put Labour on 24. There was an ignored one that put the LibDems 23. If Labour remains on 24 the LibDems could capture enough Tories seats to rob Cameron of a majority. It seems likely that as  immigration grows as an issue Clegg fortunes will plummet because his amnesty plan is unsellable to angry public. Tonight's poll of polls of Lab 28 and LibDem 26 suggests that Clegg's bubble has burst. It certainly has in Wales. The Red Tops are sticking to their theme of Labour disasters - even using a car crash and a single heckler as proof of Labour's decline. It's a theme. But it is not reflected in the polls. If Labour can stay on 28 or improve it while votes shift from LibDems to Tory, that will give a hung parliament with a substantial number of Labour seats. 

That's not an unsatisfactory outcome.

Boosted by the Western Mail polls that show Labour in Wales increasing our support and the LibDems fading,  morael is high in Newport. Harriet Harman and Chris Bryant visited our gazebo this morning. The BBC Wales site said that Nick Clegg was visiting Newport East. I spotted their bus in the heart of my constituency at the River Front arts centre. They were meeting inside. Do they know their East from their West?

 
 
 
 

Horse sense

"When will he say that it's a 'two horse race?' 

That was said by LibDem peer Lord Tordov when I joined him as an observer of the first free Bulgarian elections in 1990. It the first free election in Bulgaria after communism collapsed. 

Lord Tordov was mocking the tired tactic of LibDems to seize the initiative in by-elections by bigging-up the chances of  third parties. It worked for the LibDems in many by-elections when they reached a tipping point where constituencies votes were volatile. They are trying the same trick on the nation. 

But is does not work nationally. It did not work in Bulgaria. Now the poll of polls including tomorrow's give Labour a one point lead over the LibDems. As the country is now well aware, that does not mean an equality of seats. Equal positions in the opinion polls  mean twice as many MPs for Labour compared with LibDems.

The fear among Labour campaigners  that our support would fall after Duffy-gate  has not been realised. The Welsh poll (below) is very encouraging for Labour.  The Tories are still on 34, six points below where they were three weeks ago and Labour has not fallen to our core 24%. There is one Daily Mail that puts  Labour on 24. Bad for us and for the Tories. But it is probably a rogue poll. Their Labour readers will fume against the Guardian's treachery tomorrow. Supporting the LibDems is the path to a Tory overall victory. Not that it will make much difference except loss of Labour loyal readers.

Guardian readers are wise enough to make up their own minds on where they votes go. I should not complain. The paper's advice is that their readers should vote for me in Newport West.  Mine is one of the seats where the LibDems are a lowly third.They write:-

Yes Newport West will be a two-horse race but neither of them will be LibDem.

Labour lifted in Wales as Clegg mania wanes, our poll reveals

May 1 2010 by Martin Shipton, Western Mail

A POLL carried out exclusively for the Western Mail among Welsh voters suggests a swing back from the Liberal Democrats to Labour over the past 10 days.

With Labour on 37.5% – 14% ahead of the Conservatives on 23.5% – party insiders were last night hopeful it could keep losses in Wales to a minimum on Thursday.

The poll by Wales-based Research and Marketing Plus found the Liberal Democrats were in third place on 21.0%, while Plaid Cymru’s support was at 10.8%.

While polling experts stressed that it was risky to project national poll results into local seats, it is likely that on these figures the Tories would win three seats from Labour – Cardiff North, Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South – as well as the new seat of Aberconwy, which was notionally a Labour seat in 2005.

The findings would nevertheless represent a decline in the Labour vote compared to 2005’s general election. Then, its support in Wales stood at 42.7%, with the Conservatives on 21.4%, the Liberal Democrats on 18.4% and Plaid on 12.6%.

Vanilla hustings

It was an anti-climax.

The only Hustings of all candidates in Newport West  took place tonight in the Bethel Chapel on Stow Hill. It was a vanilla occasion. The questions predominantly reflected the views of Cytun and the Evangeligal Alliance. That did not lead to a lively debate as the five candidates agreed on almost everything.

I got fed up with others saying they agreed with. I gave the first answers to most questions. My answers must have been pretty obvous for the unanimity that followed. The only disagreement on whether Chritianity had been marginalised. Half the audience thought it had, mainly because of those who wear crosses being disaplined. The cases are extremly rare but enough to arouse a widespread sense of victimhood from evangelical Christians.

Our Hustings clashed with other debate. The depressing instant recation seem to reflect the ignomy that has been visted on Gordon Brown and the fading glamour of Nick Clegg. No doubt the polls will follow the trend. That is certainly dispiriting. Thanks goodness a good 8% of the population have already voted by post.